Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 8.476329e-05 0.000101 0.000119 0.000140 0.000162 0.000186 0.000213
2024-10-27 6.634204e-05 0.000088 0.000113 0.000143 0.000177 0.000215 0.000260
2024-11-03 5.155179e-05 0.000075 0.000103 0.000137 0.000178 0.000225 0.000282
2024-11-10 4.251342e-05 0.000067 0.000098 0.000138 0.000187 0.000244 0.000314
2024-11-17 3.421329e-05 0.000059 0.000091 0.000134 0.000189 0.000253 0.000334
2024-11-24 2.941720e-05 0.000055 0.000089 0.000137 0.000198 0.000271 0.000365
2024-12-01 2.485473e-05 0.000050 0.000086 0.000137 0.000203 0.000284 0.000388
2024-12-08 1.956633e-05 0.000044 0.000080 0.000132 0.000202 0.000290 0.000404
2024-12-15 1.614136e-05 0.000040 0.000076 0.000131 0.000205 0.000300 0.000423
2024-12-22 1.318256e-05 0.000036 0.000073 0.000129 0.000208 0.000309 0.000443
2024-12-29 1.147504e-05 0.000034 0.000072 0.000131 0.000215 0.000324 0.000470
2025-01-05 9.252141e-06 0.000031 0.000068 0.000130 0.000218 0.000333 0.000488
2025-01-12 6.679376e-06 0.000026 0.000063 0.000126 0.000217 0.000339 0.000504
2025-01-19 5.600892e-06 0.000025 0.000063 0.000129 0.000227 0.000359 0.000540
2025-01-26 3.693550e-06 0.000021 0.000058 0.000123 0.000224 0.000361 0.000551
2025-02-02 2.846867e-06 0.000019 0.000056 0.000124 0.000230 0.000376 0.000580
2025-02-09 1.817801e-06 0.000016 0.000052 0.000121 0.000229 0.000381 0.000594
2025-02-16 1.411458e-06 0.000015 0.000052 0.000123 0.000238 0.000398 0.000626
2025-02-23 9.469530e-07 0.000014 0.000050 0.000123 0.000241 0.000410 0.000650
2025-03-02 4.862904e-07 0.000012 0.000046 0.000119 0.000240 0.000413 0.000663
2025-03-09 2.524185e-07 0.000010 0.000044 0.000117 0.000241 0.000421 0.000682
2025-03-16 1.123787e-07 0.000009 0.000042 0.000116 0.000244 0.000430 0.000703
2025-03-23 5.698330e-08 0.000008 0.000042 0.000118 0.000251 0.000446 0.000732